Bluffing is Overrated (I think)
💭 thinking about playing poker
I’ve been slowly learning how to play better poker in our shareholder games, and as much as I love that poker encourages lying I started thinking that bluffing might be overrated. (At least for me.)
🎂 Before we get into it, a reminder that we’re playing poker on May 13th. Add it to your calendar because it’s also my BIRTHDAY GAME and all I want is for a massive two or more table game.
I’ve been thinking about EV, expected value, and it’s helped me make sense of what’s actually working at the table. It’s math…
EV = (Pwin * Vwin) + (Plose * Vlose)
Pwin: Probability of winning
Vwin: Value if you win
Plose: Probability of losing
Vlose: Value if you lose
Example (Calling a Bet):
Pot: $100
They bet: $50
You call: $50
You estimate you win 40% of the time.
EV = (0.4 \times 150) + (0.6 \times -50)
EV = 60 - 30 = +30
+EV = Good call (on average, you win $30 per call)
EV for Bluffing:
You bet: $100
Opponent folds 70%, calls 30%
If called, you lose your $100 bet.
EV = (0.7 \times 100) + (0.3 \times -100) = 70 - 30 = +40
Of course I don't really know the probability of winning or losing in the middle of the game, but the concept of expected value leads me to believe bluffing is “-EV” for me.
I Can’t Read Cards (Yet)
I pride myself on being hard to read. This is a defensive pride based on erratic and nonsensical play, and not on any real kind of strategy. I’m essentially always on tilt and I vary wildly from playing tight to getting so bored folding that I decide to make big bets for no reason.
But I also have no idea what anyone else has. I mean, that’s not totally true. I’ve gotten a little better at suspecting what people have based on how they are playing a hand, but usually that is just when I think “They must have the best possible hand,” and then I stay in hoping they don’t have that, and then they do and I lose. Good job me, I predicted their hand.
But my point here is that I have no idea what anyone else has, so I have a really hard time estimating my chances of winning even before I have to do any real math.
People Like to Call
Sometimes it seems like nobody wants to fold in our games. Maybe it is because everyone can tell when I’m full of shit? The only time I feel confident bluffing is when everyone checks it around multiple times, and even then at least one person is probably going to call just to see if they win with a pair.
The more people call the less EV there is in bluffing.
Big Bets + Fold Fast vs. Lies
Last week I was the bubble boy, but I also played better than usual with my Quibi™ Strategy of Bet Big, Fold Fast. I made big bets using the 1/2 or 3/4 pot buttons and then if things didn’t go my way I’d get out of the hand and try not to chase a long shot (didn’t always work, which is why I was the only rebuy).
The problem is that a BB:FF strategy is not as FUN as bluffing. But i think it’s a better strategy for me.
I’m still working it all out, and it’s probably dumb to explain to all the people I play with how I’m playing but maybe this whole email is a bluff? You never know. ¯\(°_o)/¯
See you on May 13th,
-Mike the Birthday Boy