Bet Big, Fold Fast
♦️ poker lessons from the masters
Reminder: We’re playing poker on Tuesday, April 8th at 7pm pacific. It’s a $50 tourney and it’s going to be very fun.
RIP QUIBI
Today is the 5th anniversary of the launch of Quibi, one of the greatest ideas in media from the genius who brought us Shrek and Sinbad: Legend of the Seas, and this is an anniversary I like to celebrate every year. This year, I think there are some lessons for us poker players…
Five years ago a man made a big bet on the future of media. He wasn't wrong, but the world changed, and he adapted quickly and decisively. Yes, I'm talking about Quibi...
Jeffrey Katzenberg saw the future. Back in 2018 he knew short-form, premium mobile content was the future of media. His ability to see this coming was like being dealt a pair of aces! He raised pre-flop with A-list talent, over a billion in capital, and a format built for modern attention spans.
Then came the flop: COVID-19…
A brutal turn of the cards. A platform built for commutes and movement landed in a world under lockdown. The board was dead. But Katzenberg played like a pro—he didn’t chase losses. He read the table, saw the writing on the wall, and folded with discipline.
And in folding, he did something rare: he returned over $600 million to investors. He walked away from the pot with integrity, preserving capital and reputation for the next game.
The lessons are clear:
1. Play Big Hands Aggressively
You can’t win folding premium cards. Katzenberg saw an opening and bet boldly. That’s how you build category-defining ventures.
2. Respect the Flop
Market forces are table conditions. You don’t control them, but you must respond to them. COVID-19 changed the game overnight.
3. Know When to Fold
Chasing losses is how you go broke. Katzenberg knew the moment to step away, returning value and living to play the next hand.
Quibi wasn’t a failure—it was a disciplined, high-stakes game that reminds us: if you want to win big, you have to be willing to bet big and fold fast.
five years ago today quibi launched and was set to change the media world. sadly it failed... and look where we are now.